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Welcome to your daily mind meld with the Polymarket order book. What we're watching today:
Mind the mines
Iran's Revolutionary Guard has warned that vessels in Hormuz will be safe as long as they avoid the mines they have laid in certain areas.
Use case
The war has introduced a new use case for Bitcoin: paying Iran tolls to pass through Hormuz. The IRGC still doesn't accept ETH unfortunately 😭
The House
The Democrats are now 87% favorites to win the House in November. But more importantly, politics is now LIVE on Polymarket's US app. Click this item from your iOS device and use code "POLYG" to get $20 to trade (US only).
Will Iran strike East–West Crude Oil Pipeline by April 30?
JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 10?
Will Iran strike Saudi Arabia by April 30, 2026?
March Inflation US - Annual (Higher Brackets)
Price of Dozen Eggs in March?
March 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
Which banks will fail by end of 2026?
Will Pam Bondi be held in contempt of Congress by April 30?
North Korea missile test/launch by April 30, 2026?
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by...?
Next Prime Minister of Denmark?
Eurovision Winner 2026
The Masters - Winner
F1 Drivers' Champion
2026 NHL Stanley Cup Champion
Phantom Tollbooth
Anonymous energy trader explains why leaving Iran in control of Hormuz is fundamentally untenable to the Gulf States.
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