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MARKET ANALYSIS |
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▲ Bullish |
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7 min read |
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⚡ 30-Second Brief
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Dow surged 1,325 points (+2.85%) — best day since April 2025. S&P +2.5%, Nasdaq +2.8%. VIX collapsed 22% to pre-war levels |
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WTI crashed 16.4% to $94.41 — biggest single-day drop since 2020. Brent down 13.3%. Still 35% above pre-war |
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PHLX Semiconductor Index (SOX) and SOXX ETF hit all-time highs — first records since late February |
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Software ETF (IGV) down 12% in one month — Palantir, Palo Alto, Oracle oversold per analysts. Fundstrat targets S&P 7,300 |
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Earnings season starts: GS Mon, JPM/C/WFC/JNJ/BLK Tue, BAC/MS Wed, NFLX/TSMC Thu. IT earnings expected +44% YoY |
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The Ceasefire Rally: What Held, What Broke, What Comes Next |
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Trump announced the two-week ceasefire less than two hours before his deadline to destroy a "whole civilization." Iran confirmed — then began claiming violations within 24 hours. The market's reaction was the most dramatic single-day move since April 2025: WTI crashed 16.4% to $94.41, its biggest drop since the pandemic. Brent plunged 13.3% to $94.75. But both remain 35%+ above pre-war levels of ~$67-$73. The S&P 500 is now less than 3% below its January all-time high. The Dow is essentially flat on the year after a 10% correction just two weeks ago. |
The ceasefire is fragile. Iran's parliamentary speaker claimed three clauses were violated on day one. Only four tankers transited the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday — the fewest of the week. Maritime insurance remains a bottleneck even if the strait is technically open. As Evercore ISI noted: "A two-week pause is not a resolution." But markets don't need resolution — they need the risk premium to compress. And it did: the VIX dropped 22% to pre-war levels. Airlines surged 7-12% (Delta reported strong Q1 earnings the same day). Energy stocks got crushed — Exxon and Chevron fell 5%+, oilfield services and LNG exporters lost 5-12%. |
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⚠ Ceasefire Risk: Iran claims 3 violations on day one. Only 4 tankers transited Hormuz. 187 tankers with 172M barrels remain stranded in the Gulf. Maritime insurance is the real bottleneck. The two-week window expires April 22. If talks in Islamabad collapse, oil retests $110+ instantly. Position accordingly. |
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🎯 Actionable Trade · Semiconductors |
▲ BULLISH |
Tickers: TSM ($365), NVDA ($178, CFRA PT $250), MU ($378, CFRA PT $500), AMAT ($354, CFRA PT $461) | Strategy: TSMC's beat confirms AI chip demand is accelerating through geopolitical chaos. The April 16 earnings call is the next catalyst. CFRA rates all four "Strong Buy." MU at 9.9x forward earnings with a $500 target is the deepest value play in the AI stack. Goldman estimates AI capex exceeds $500B in 2026. |
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Chips at ATH, Software at -12%: The Divergence Trade |
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The PHLX Semiconductor Index and the SOXX ETF both hit all-time highs this week — their first records since late February, before the war began. TSMC's $35.7 billion Q1 revenue beat, with 45.2% March YoY growth and record-high margin guidance of 63-65%, confirmed that AI chip demand is accelerating through geopolitical chaos. The full earnings call on Thursday April 16 is the week's marquee tech event. CFRA maintains "Strong Buy" on NVDA ($250 PT), MU ($500 PT), and AMAT ($461 PT). |
Meanwhile, software stocks are quietly bleeding. The iShares Expanded Tech-Software ETF (IGV) has fallen 12% in the past month while the S&P has risen modestly. Palantir, Palo Alto Networks, and Oracle are leading the decline. Analysts are calling the selloff overdone — security software fundamentals remain strong, and Oracle's AI infrastructure role provides steady cash flow despite a 30% YTD drop and recent layoffs. Fundstrat's Tom Lee says the S&P has bottomed and targets 7,300 by year-end, citing cheaper valuations across tech after the "rolling bear market" that hit 70% of the index. The divergence between chips at ATH and software at monthly lows is the trade. |
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🎯 Actionable Trade · Software Dip-Buy |
▲ BULLISH |
Tickers: IGV (Software ETF), PANW (Palo Alto Networks), ORCL (Oracle, -30% YTD), PLTR (Palantir) | Strategy: Software's -12% drawdown while chips hit ATH is unsustainable. Security software fundamentals are intact. ORCL's AI infrastructure revenue provides a valuation floor. When oil normalizes and yields drop (10Y already -20bp to 4.2%), growth multiples expand — and software catches the bid first. Fundstrat targets S&P 7,300. |
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Earnings Season: The Week That Sets the Tone |
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Q1 earnings season begins in force next week. FactSet projects a blended S&P 500 growth rate of 12.5% — the sixth consecutive quarter of double-digit growth. Nine of 11 sectors are expected to post YoY gains. But the number that matters most: information technology earnings are projected to jump 44% YoY, underscoring the sector's role as the market's growth engine. |
Monday opens with Goldman Sachs. Tuesday is the big bank day: JPMorgan, Citigroup, Wells Fargo, BlackRock, and Johnson & Johnson. Wednesday brings Bank of America and Morgan Stanley. But Thursday is the week's inflection point: Netflix and TSMC's full earnings call land simultaneously. Netflix is targeting a 31.5% operating margin — a leap from 20-25% just two years ago — and Goldman just upgraded the stock with a $120 target. TSMC's call will confirm whether record margins held and how N2 chip ramp is progressing. If both deliver, tech multiples expand and the S&P makes a run at January's all-time high before the ceasefire even expires. |
📅 Earnings Calendar: Mon — GS | Tue — JPM, C, WFC, BLK, JNJ | Wed — BAC, MS, PNC + Fed March Minutes | Thu — NFLX, TSMC full call, PEP, SCHW | Also: PPI Tue, Import/Export Wed, Philly Fed + Industrial Production Thu | Ceasefire expires Apr 22 |
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🎯 Actionable Trade · Earnings Week |
■ EVENT-DRIVEN |
Tickers: NFLX ($120 GS PT), TSM (full call Thu), JPM, GS | Strategy: IT earnings at +44% YoY is the sector carrying the market. TSMC's Thursday call is the single most important event — if 63-65% margins hold, the entire semi supply chain reprices higher. NFLX at 31.5% operating margin is a cash-flow machine in a growth wrapper. Banks report into a steepening yield curve and falling 10Y. Position before Thursday, not after. |
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Hit reply: Software dip-buy or wait for TSMC's call? We read every response. |
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