| | Good morning and happy Monday. Markets enter the week facing double trouble. First, the release of the Labor Department's latest jobs report on Friday showed the US economy lost 92,000 jobs in February, widely missing estimates of 50,000 additions. BMO Capital Markets' Chief US Economist Scott Anderson said this "will change the narrative of a resilient and possibly improving US labor market." Northlight Asset Management Chief Investment Officer Chris Zaccarelli was more blunt, calling the report "terrible." Between jobs and inflation, Federal Reserve officials could soon find themselves in an uncomfortable position. Second, Brent crude futures surged passed $100 a barrel over the weekend as the Iran war continued to shock supplies. Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates started slashing oil production, while Iraq had cut its output by 70% as of Sunday. Saad al-Kaabi, Qatar's energy minister, told the Financial Times that all Gulf producers could shut down within weeks, driving oil to $150 a barrel. In Japan, which imports 90% of its oil from the Middle East, the blue-chip Nikkei 225 fell 5.2% Monday. S&P 500 futures, meanwhile, are down 1.1% this morning in New York. It's a central banker's worst nightmare: an economy that seems to be getting expensive and slowing down at the same time. | | | | | | | | The Pentagon is tired of bringing a $4 million missile to a $500 drone fight. Since the US and Israel launched strikes on Iran on February 28, Tehran has responded by sending thousands of kamikaze drones to strike military and civilian targets across the Gulf, including US bases. Most have been intercepted, but expensively so. The Pentagon's approach to drone warfare could get major updates this week. Discount Defenders From an economic lens, this is straightforward. Iran's Shahed drones, which Tehran has stockpiled in the thousands, cost roughly $30,000 each. The US and its regional allies are intercepting them with Patriot air defense missiles, which cost millions of dollars, and other pricey interceptors. On top of this, drones can be mass-produced. Patriot interceptor production is limited to roughly 600 units annually (manufacturer Lockheed Martin is slated to increase that to 2,000 as part of a seven-year agreement with the US government). Admiral Brad Cooper, the head of US Central Command, said last week that Tehran had already launched over 2,000 drones. If it's not obvious, this suggests an imbalance that's adding up quickly. Experts have raised concerns that interceptor stockpiles could be strained if the conflict continues much longer. But the one country that happens to be the world leader in defeating Shahed drones is a US ally: Ukraine. Russia has used Shaheds since it launched its full-scale invasion of its neighbor in 2022 and, dealing with its own shortage of interceptor missiles, Ukraine pioneered cheap, effective, mass-produced counter-drones to destroy them. One of the best-known, the "Sting", can reach speeds of 185 miles per hour, climb several thousand feet, and provide a roughly 15-mile operational range — all at a unit cost as low as $2,500. That capability, developed for Ukraine by the volunteer nonprofit Wild Hornets, opened a window for Kyiv: - On Thursday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said his country was providing specialists and assistance at the request of the US, while the Financial Times reported that the Pentagon and at least one Gulf country are in talks to buy Ukrainian interceptors. Zelenskyy also said he was open to swapping them for Patriot missiles.
- Last month, through its Drone Dominance Program, the Pentagon invited 25 drone manufacturers, including two from Ukraine, to compete for a $150 million prototype order for 30,000 small, one-way attack drones.
  Invest It Old School: The US government is still committed to increasing traditional missile-interceptor production, something investors have greater access to in public markets than the startup-laden drone sector. When L3Harris Technologies announced a spinoff of its solid rocket motor business in January, the Pentagon said it would invest $1 billion in its IPO. Last week, the US Army approved a $184 million contract for Raytheon to deliver new hardware and services for Patriot systems operated by the UAE, which is taking steps to shore up its aerial defenses amid Iranian attacks. Written by Sean Craig | | | | | | | | | Photo via Betterment | | | | | | Twinkle, twinkle, little … satellite? In news that's good for internet connectivity and bad for stargazing, Amazon's filling the sky with more Leo satellites. The FCC last month approved the company's request to expand its low-orbit constellation to more than 7,700. For now, Amazon's still far away from that goal. Amazon Leo (previously known as Project Kuiper) successfully deployed 32 satellites last month, its largest payload so far. That brought its total number of satellites in the sky to more than 200. The space race is on to build the biggest satellite internet network, and Amazon has some catching up to do. Clashing Constellations Amazon's lagging behind rival Starlink, Elon Musk's satellite internet service under SpaceX. Starlink is speeding toward having nearly 10,000 active satellites in low orbit, and already has more than 10 million subscribers. Amazon Leo, meanwhile, asked the FCC in January for permission to push back its deadline for delivering 1,600 satellites to orbit from this July to 2028. Amazon plans to start rolling out the Leo service to customers this year, the company said last month. The second half of the space biathlon is acquiring major clients: - Vodafone forged a deal with Amazon Leo last week to serve remote zones of Europe and Africa, adding to previous telecom partnerships with Verizon, Vrio and Australia's NBN. Amazon Leo, whose latest expansion over the poles could boost airlines' connectivity, scored a deal with JetBlue last year to connect a quarter of its fleet to its satellites by next year.
- Starlink, meanwhile, has teamed up with T-Mobile and its biggest stakeholder, Deutsche Telekom. It also has deals with Royal Caribbean on the seas and Hawaiian, United and Southwest in the skies. Not to be counted out, AST SpaceMobile has an overlapping client list, with the likes of Vodafone and Verizon. It's hard to compare its number of satellites because the company launches larger orbiters that it says will support higher speeds. Last month, AST unfurled a 2,400-square-foot satellite.
Space (Traffic) Jam: There could be a practical limit on how many companies can compete to provide internet service from space. The number of satellites floating in low orbit has surged in recent years to nearly 15,000, most of which are Starlink's. Researchers are concerned low orbit won't be able to safely hold an influx of satellites because of collision risks in a growing graveyard of dead satellites and other space junk. Written by Jamie Wilde | | | | | | | | | Photo via Pernas Research | | | | | | It's a radical disintermediation play by Eli Lilly. Last week, the pharma giant announced a new direct-to-employer platform for its weight-loss drug Zepbound, in a bid to circumvent insurers, expand access and lower prices. It's a notable move, though the most significant shakeup to Eli Lilly's GLP-1 pricing quagmire still lies ahead. License to Pill Employers and insurance firms remain loath to cover the popular and effective GLP-1 weight-loss drugs due to their high cost of about $1,000 per month (out-of-pocket costs can reach $1,400 per month). In an October survey, just 20% of firms with 200 or more workers said they covered GLP-1 drugs for weight loss, according to the Peterson-KFF Health System Tracker. In fact, coverage for the drugs is shrinking. About 12 million people have lost any level of coverage for Zepbound through their insurance plans in 2026, according to data analysis by telemedicine platform GoodRx, which also said the total share of insured people with no coverage for Zepbound increased to 56% from 51% last year. Eli Lilly's "Employer Connect" platform attempts to bypass traditional benefit programs by allowing employers to approve access to the drug through more than 15 different third-party program administrators, including GoodRx, Teledoc, Sesame and Cost Plus Drugs, a.k.a. Mark Cuban's drug distribution company that cuts out pharmacy benefits managers. All told, Eli Lilly says the platform will reduce prescription costs to about $449. That's nice, but it all may be moot a month from now: - In April, the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) is expected to decide on approval for Orforglipron, Eli Lilly's oral pill version of its weight loss drug, with CFO Lucas Montarce saying at a conference last week the company expects to launch the drug "as early as Q2."
- Orforglipron is expected to be far cheaper than its injectable counterparts (Novo Nordisk's recently approved Wegovy pill runs as low as $149 per month), and Eli Lilly said in a regulatory filing last month that it had already stocked up about $1.5 billion in pre-launch inventory.
Access No Longer Denied: The likely arrival of Orforglipron isn't the only way access trends are set to reverse in 2026. Medicare is also expected to begin offering some patients access to Zepbound starting mid-year, following a deal with the White House. Written by Brian Boyle | | | | | - Permission Denied: BlackRock limited withdrawals from one of its flagship private credit funds for the first time, after investor redemption requests surged to $1.2 billion.
- Refunds Come to Those Who Wait: US Customs says a system to refund the Trump administration's reciprocal tariffs, which the Supreme Court struck down, may be up and running in April.
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* Partner | | | | Disclaimers *Not a recommendation; Investing deposit must be kept for three years to avoid a fee. Terms apply: betterment.com/tiered-terms. Betterment is not a licensed tax advisor. Investing involves risk. Performance not guaranteed. **Gross returns do not reflect the deduction of advisory fees and expenses; actual results would be lower. | | |
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