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Welcome back to your daily mind meld with the Polymarket order book. What's cooking today:
"Nation builder"
Some Chinese accounts have nicknamed Trump "Chuan Gianguo" or "Nation Builder" - implying that his military actions have only helped China strategically. Odds for any deliverables from Trump's Xi summit have all plunged in the last day.
The Massie files
Anti-Trump Republican Thomas Massie's odds plunged following hush money allegations from an ex-girlfriend. Reelect in trouble?
Crash alert
Big Short star Michael Burry has been warning his Substack readers of an AI bubble for months. Polymarket traders think we're good for at least another 100 points on the S&P before that.
Scheff is cooking
Pre-tournament favorite Scottie Scheffler opened the PGA Championship with a 67 on Thursday — and traders are already pushing his odds higher.
US x China tariff agreement by May 31?
US federally charges ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro?
Will Australia win the second Eurovision Semi-Final?
Eurovision Winner 2026
Eurovision 2026: Jury Winner
GPU rental prices (H100) hit___ by May 31?
Will Little Joe escape again?
GA-01 Democratic Primary Winner
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
Brazil Presidential Election
US x Iran permanent peace deal by...?
Fed Decision in June?
2026 NHL Stanley Cup Champion
Spurs vs. Timberwolves
Pistons vs. Cavaliers
2026 NBA Champion
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