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Welcome to your daily mind meld with the Polymarket order book. What we're watching today:
Tense
There are conflicting reports this morning on whether Iran just hit a U.S. warship in Hormuz. Odds of an Iranian airspace closure spiked to over 55% before retracing on denials of the strike news.
Quick Links
Come for the king
NVIDIA has held the largest company by market cap crown for 12 consecutive months. But is Alphabet about to break the streak?
Dark Horse AG?
The Attorney General slot has been vacant since Pam Bondi's firing on April 2. Trump seems to be moving towards a nomination, but Acting AG Todd Blanche's odds have been cut in half over the past week.
Sweating one ticket
@4qfrankie is up nearly $13k in the past month. The only big position he's down on? 10,000 shares of NO for the Knicks to make the NBA Finals
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026?
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in May?
Will Lady Gaga attend the Met Gala?
"The Devil Wears Prada 2" Opening Weekend Box Office
Ohio Governor Republican Primary Winner
What will be the top global Netflix show this week?
DOJ reopens Powell investigation by...?
US announces shutdown of Gaza military center by May 15?
Will Tucker Carlson announce Presidential run by June 30?
Presidential Election Winner 2028
Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly Election Winner
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?
76ers vs. Knicks
Lakers vs. Thunder
2026 NHL Stanley Cup Champion
Everton FC vs. Manchester City FC
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