| | Good morning. There's a corporate duel at high noon between two of the most iconic brands in the gun business. On Monday, American firearms maker Ruger issued a fiery statement accusing Italian rival Beretta of plotting a stealth takeover. Last September, Beretta disclosed a 7.7% stake in Ruger and, last month, nominated four directors to its board. Ruger said Monday that it asked Beretta to stop accumulating shares, and executives from the two companies met in Paris and Luxembourg in recent months to negotiate. At those meetings, Ruger said it offered Beretta an ownership cap, board seats and the opportunity to explore commercial collaborations. Beretta threatened to "go to war" if it wasn't given a 25% stake, including some shares at a 15% discount, Ruger added. While a Beretta may have worked for Bruce Willis' John McClane in Die Hard and a Ruger for Chow Yun Fat's trigger-happy Inspector Tequila Yuen in Hardboiled, this duel will be carried out via a continued exchange of stern press releases and shareholder disclosures. | | | | | | | | Energy markets intelligence provider Argus estimated Monday that 6.2 million to 6.9 million barrels of daily oil supply is now offline, with Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain, Iraq and Kuwait all trimming output in response to the near closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The US-Israel conflict with Iran has triggered the biggest oil supply disruption ever, topping the 1956 Suez crisis. Officials will meet today to discuss measures to address the myriad impacts, while one Wall Street bank said investors would be wise to gird for a stock market correction. Tactical Bears The US administration sent mixed messages yesterday about how long war with Iran could drag on. President Donald Trump told CBS News that the conflict "is very complete" and that the US was "thinking about taking over" the Strait, the world's most strategically important energy chokepoint. The S&P 500 gained on Trump's words, rebounding from down 1.5% mid-session to closing up 0.8%, making for its biggest single-day comeback in nearly a year. Meanwhile, an official Pentagon account on social media suggested otherwise, posting: "We have only just begun to fight." Looking ahead, officials remain focused on shielding energy markets. Economy and finance ministers in the EU, a net energy importer, are holding a second day of talks in Brussels today. South Korea, another net importer, said it would cap oil prices for the first time in 30 years. And energy ministers from the Group of Seven (that's Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the UK and the US) will hold a call today to discuss using strategic oil reserves. The US reportedly prefers releasing 300 million to 400 million barrels from the 1.2 billion in emergency stocks held by International Energy Agency members. With that option on the table, oil prices have softened since Sunday, when they soared well above $100: US crude traded at $88 per barrel earlier this morning and the international benchmark, Brent, at $91. But without a near-term solution, US stocks and growth could still be poised for setbacks: - "We are now tactically bearish," was the message JPMorgan sent in a note to clients on Monday. The bank's analysts said those who bought the dip last week "expecting de-escalation" might not be prepared for a potential 10% correction in the S&P 500. A "relief rally" could eventually follow, they said, but not until the US finds a "defined off-ramp" from the Iran conflict.
- Analysts at investment advisor Vanguard said in a note Monday that a moderate scenario where oil hovers between $90 and $100 a barrel for one to two quarters could trim US GDP growth by 0.1% and add 0.8% to inflation.
  Glass Half Full: Patrick De Haan, the head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, tweeted it's "likely true" that the spike in US fuel prices, up 17% at the pump to $3.48 since February 28, will be temporary. Meanwhile, LPL Financial wrote that "the stock market has demonstrated remarkable resilience in the face of major geopolitical shocks in the past." They found that, following 26 such events over 80 years, the S&P 500 experienced an average pullback of 4.5% before "typically stabilizing in less than a month." Written by Sean Craig | | | | | | | | | Photo via Citizens | | | | | | | | | The entertainment industry's trial of the century started with a bang and ended with a whimper. On Monday, the US Justice Department announced a tentative settlement in its monopoly case against Live Nation, a shocking development for a years-in-the-making case that just entered a jury trial last week. While the DOJ and dozens of states initially sought a full break-up of Live Nation and Ticketmaster when they filed the lawsuit in May 2024, it now seems the Live Nation-Ticketmaster band may stay together. Much to the chagrin of pretty much everyone else in the live events industry, from concert venue owners to Kid Rock and millions of Swifties. Strike Three? According to sources who spoke to The New York Times, the settlement agreement calls for Live Nation to let venues use multiple ticket vendors (rather than Ticketmaster exclusively), and allow touring artists to use promoters other than Live Nation when performing in one of the roughly 460 Live Nation-owned venues. It's hardly the first time the government has tried to modify the company's behavior without tearing it apart: - When the government approved the Live Nation-Ticketmaster merger back in 2010, the newly formed entity signed a consent decree in which it agreed not to leverage the power of its touring business to coerce venues into using Ticketmaster. In 2019, after Live Nation was found to have repeatedly violated the consent decree, the DOJ and the company agreed to a new consent decree that strengthened the language of the previous edition.
- It apparently wasn't strong enough. During the trial last week, the DOJ played a recording of a phone conversation in which Live Nation Chief Executive Officer Michael Rapino appeared to threaten to take concerts away from the Barclays Center in Brooklyn if the venue moved forward with plans to switch from Ticketmaster to SeatGeek.
The Show Might Go On: The tentative settlement still requires sign-off from US District Judge Arun Subramanian, who appeared quite unhappy when told Monday that the two sides had discreetly struck an agreement the previous Thursday without informing the court. The settlement calls for a maximum damages payout of $280 million if all 39 states (plus Washington, DC) that joined the DOJ in the lawsuit agree to it. That looks unlikely. In a statement on Monday, New York Attorney General Letitia James said that at least 26 states and DC were planning on moving forward with the trial, arguing the settlement "fails to address the monopoly at the center of this case." The divergent path puts the case in "uncharted ground" in monopolization case law, Loyola University Chicago School of Law Professor Spencer Waller told The Daily Upside. "The tradition is if the government shows that a company has durable market power and is engaged in unlawful or exclusionary acts, they win," Waller said. "The remedy has been break-up." Written by Brian Boyle | | | | | | | | | Photo via Oracle NetSuite | | | | | | Novo Nordisk and Hims & Hers just went through the pharma equivalent of an enemies-to-lovers arc. The two struck a deal Monday for Hims to offer official versions of Novo's GLP-1 drugs Ozempic and Wegovy. The team-up comes months after Novo sued Hims for selling knockoffs. At the center of Novo's now-dropped lawsuit was a compounded copycat of the Wegovy weight-loss pill Novo started offering this year. The blockbuster pill has already racked up 600,000 prescriptions, Novo's CEO said. Now, Hims will be able to sell the Wegovy pill, as well as Ozempic and Wegovy injectables. While Hims can still sell compounded GLP-1s when providers decide they're needed, it can no longer advertise the knockoffs. Novo's decision helped drive shares of the DTC pharma company 47% higher yesterday morning. Rise of Millennialized Telehealth Hims & Hers, founded about nine years ago as a millennial-targeted telehealth startup, has grown its biz with a massive marketing push. Hims spent about $679 million on ads in 2024 and bought spots in the past two Super Bowls. The marketing blitz is meant to help it stand out: Rival telehealth company Ro has become known for its ads showing Serena Williams self-poking GLP-1s. Big Pharma has been struggling to get a handle on these up-and-comers: - Telehealth pharmacies were able to sell compounded versions of popular GLP-1 drugs through a legal loophole that allows them to do so during FDA-declared shortages. But when Novo and Eli Lilly ramped up production of official versions of the drugs, and the FDA declared the shortages over, companies had two months to take their money-making compounded options off the market. Many didn't, citing legal loopholes, which prompted lawsuits.
- Pressure on Hims, Ro and others ramped up last week when the FDA said it'd take action against companies marketing illegal copycats. Big Pharma, meanwhile, is taking sides: Similar to the Hims-Novo deal, Ro has a tie-up with Eli Lilly to sell its blockbuster weight-loss drug, Zepbound.
Side Effects: The rise of new Big Pharma options and compounding competitors has pressured companies to cut prices. Novo discounted its weight-loss drugs from about $1,000 per month to less than $300, and Novo anticipates sales declines this year. Hims agreed to sell Novo's drugs at the drugmaker's prices, which could mean tighter margins for the telehealth company, too. Written by Jamie Wilde | | | | | - Claude in Court: Anthropic made good on its promise to sue the Pentagon over its blacklisting as a "supply chain risk" after requesting safeguards on the use of its technology.
- Kicked Out of the Neighborhood: A new US Senate bill would force large investors to sell newly-built rental properties within seven years of completion.
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