| Punxsutawney Phil — the star of Groundhog Day — has a big job. Every February 2, the furry critter is responsible for encouraging (or dashing) our dreams of an early end to winter. However, it seems that basing our meteorological forecasts on a den-dwelling mammal's shadow may not be the wisest bet. By some estimates, Phil's forecasts have had a mere 39% accuracy rate since they began in 1887 (although data from some early years is missing). In recent years, the groundhog's predictions have been about as accurate as a coin toss; according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Phil was spot-on 50% of the time between 2011 and 2020. The Punxsutawney Groundhog Club — the group responsible for Phil's care and the official Groundhog Day ceremony — has said in the past that Phil is always correct, and that Phil's handlers are to blame for any inaccuracies, suggesting that in those instances they likely misinterpreted the "groundhogese" he speaks and inaccurately relayed his message. The tradition of watching groundhogs search for their shadow as a means of winter forecasting came to the U.S. from German immigrants, who brought with them celebrations of Candlemas Day. Observed on February 2, the holiday commemorates when the Virgin Mary went to Jerusalem's holy temple to be purified 40 days after Jesus' birth. Celebrants of old noted that a sunny holiday likely indicated snow to come in late spring. The original Germanic tradition required observing a badger or hedgehog, but immigrants found that groundhogs (native to North America) were a good enough substitute, saddling the rotund rodents with the job of predicting spring's arrival — a tradition that's drawn thousands of onlookers to Punxsutawney each February for more than 130 years. | 
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